Stanford finds the AI hit is still concentrated in entry-level jobs

On August 24 Ars Technica reported a Stanford update to Canaries in the Coal Mine that uses ADP payroll data. Workers aged 22 to 25 in the most AI-exposed jobs now sit 19% below less-exposed peers, compared with 13% last year. Economy-wide, the study finds little overall AI gap.

What we know

• For ages 22–25 in the most AI-exposed jobs, employment is now 19% below less-exposed peers, versus 13% a year earlier.
• Across the whole economy the study finds little overall AI employment gap.
• Since 2022, the top 40% of AI-impacted jobs are down 11% for ages 22–25, while the least-impacted 60% are up 10%.
• The declines are in automative jobs, not augmentative ones.
• Erik Brynjolfsson said he is worried about a closed career on-ramp.

Takeaways

• The new gap is sharper for young workers in exposed roles, not for the whole labor market.
• The losses cluster where AI replaces tasks rather than where it assists them.
• Brynjolfsson’s concern is that the first rung of those careers is disappearing.

Source: Ars Technica / Stanford